In addition to the problem of oversupply of crude oil, the demand for crude oil has also begun to show signs of weakness. After the supply was interrupted, the supply continues to rise. There is a serious surplus oThe first U.S. tanker to export crude oil from Texasf oil products. The demand for crude oil is much lower than the demand for products, and the demand for major products is also falling. As the driving season draws to a close and refiners enter the equipment maintenance season, demand for gasoline will decline. After reaching the peak in July, it will continue to fall to the 0-month low. High gasoline inventories will also cause refineries to close production earlier this year, and the oversupply situation will be more severe than the current situation. Investors are also bearish on oil, and oil prices are expected to fall below US$40/barrel.
The above figure compares the gold-to-oil ratio with the VIX index and the S&P index. The decline in the gold-to-oil ratio can be seen as a sign that the market returns to normal. From the above figure, it can be seen that there is a certain positive correlation between the gold-to-oil ratio and the VIX index. It also confirms from the side that changes in the ratio can reflect fluctuations in market sentiment.
Earlier, Trump tweeted that Iran's crude oil exports should be zeroed after the 4th. As soon as the news came out, companies in various countries withdrew from the Iranian market for fear of sanctions. Recently, Japan, South Korea and India have also stopped importing Iranian crude oil. But it's different. I'm not afraid at all. If you tell me to stop importing, stop importing. On the contrary, it reduced U.S. crude oil imports.
The main reason for the accelerated differentiation of the two factions is the increase in crude oil production. At present, Saudi Arabia and Russia are trying to increase crude oil production, but they have encountered resistance from Iran and Venezuela. In order to facilitate their respective claims, these countries are striving to win the support of other members of the camp. It is worth noting that, whether it is rich or poor, there seems to be the United States behind their claims.
The report shows that India does not want to completely reduce Iranian crude oil purchases. But India will switch to new sources of supply, including US crude oil, to make up for the shortfall. According to EIA data, India’s imports from the United States have steadily increased, reaching 240,000 barrels per day in May 208.
Although since 2000, American politicians have repeatedly proposed and tried to pass the NOPEC Act, but they have been vetoed by the President. Jason, director of the Center for Global Energy Policy, CThe first U.S. tanker to export crude oil from Texasolumbia University in New York and former oil official of the Obama administration
At present, the impact of the situation in Iran on the crude oil market is the dominant position. Israel's response to Iran has increased tensions in the Middle East, and the sentiment of supply shortages in the crude oil market has further increased. Iran is OPEC's third-largest oil producer, exporting nearly 2.5 million barrels of crude oil per day. A recent survey predicted that if Iran is not allowed to sell its crude oil to other countries, Iran's crude oil production may lose up to 500,000 barrels per day.
Abstract: Iran’s current difficulties have been wave after wave. After PetroChina stopped investing in Iran’s South Pars natural gas project, Russia also gave up its oil cooperation with Iran. Now it is reported that South Korea has not imported Iranian oil for months. .
In the end, it has to return to the market. The role of the American shale oil revolution is also obvious. Because the price of shale oil is lower than that of Brent crude oil, the low oil cost has promoted the increase of US fuel consumption, which has played a role in stimulating the US economy. Very important role.
Mallinson said that Angola has serious problems and its output decline rate has become more pronounced. The output data, which was at a ten-year low in June, does not seem to be the cause of the maintenance season, but may point to a steeper structural decline.